2017q1

Release Newsletter, 1^st Quarter 2017

Welcome to the first newsletter for 2017, in which we provide an overview of all the value-addition carried out by IHS Markit’s ReX Team over the past three months.
With this release we’re very excited to present a brand new user interface for ReX. The main driver behind updating our interface was to better align the product with our new corporate identity while retaining previous functionality.
This newsletter will also address the main data releases present in ReX. The current model has 2016 data for the following data sets: Demographic, Education, Household Infrastructure, Labour, Economic and Trade Data.

Please enjoy this issue and don’t hesitate to respond your comments on this quarter’s newsletter.

Global Economic Perspective

Global Economy: Broad-Based Growth

IHS Markit's analysis of Africa‘s exposure to Brexit developments shows that the region is expected to see increased uncertainty in the near term coupled with headwinds linked to a weaker British pound.
IHS Markit expects a bumpy ride ahead for African economies in 2017 as the majority of countries are still receiving lower earnings from commodity exports, a high level of imported inflation, and strong demand for hard currency, causing economic hardship.
The African countries with the highest exposure to remittance flows coming from the United Kingdom are Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, with Nigeria taking the largest share of 69% of all remittances from the UK to Africa.
We expect that UK foreign direct investment, which is focused on commodity extraction and the energy sector, will endure and that the commodity price outlook, among other factors, is likely to play a more important role in investment planning rather than being directly dictated by Brexit developments.

South African Short-Term Outlook

Economic Outlook:

IHS Markit is of the view that South Africa's overall GDP growth rate could pick up to around 1.0−1.3% in 2017.
Most leading indicators in the South African economy have turned upward since the early part of 2016, suggesting an improved economic backdrop in 2017.
'Green shoots' such as a strong bounce back in agricultural production growth, more stable electricity supply and less disruptive labour action support this view.
Monetary easing anticipated during 2017 could be offset by growth-restrictive fiscal policies introduced in the fiscal year (FY) 2017/18 budget.
The South African government upheld medium-term fiscal targets by raising the tax burden for individuals and reducing government spending.
Fiscal consolidation is deemed essential to maintain South Africa’s investment ranking by credit rating agencies.
Rand exchange-rate strength follows in the wake of a solid uptick in international commodity prices.

Major Data Updates

Community Survey 2016
StatsSA Gross Domestic Product 2016 Q4
StatsSA Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) 2016 Q4
StatsSA CPI & PPI*
SARB Quarterly Bulletin 2016 Q4
SARS Trade Data

* New weights were calculated using data from StatsSA’s Living Conditions Survey, 2014/2015 and supplementary sources, and are price updated to December 2016.