2017q2
Regional eXplorer (ReX) Update, 2nd Quarter of 2017
Welcome.
We are pleased to announce another successful product update of the IHS Markit Regional eXplorer.
This update incorporates:
- 2016 data for all modules
- a number of major data source publications
- quality checks to further improve the accuracy of the model
Regional Perspectives: Global Economy
Global economic growth in 2017 looks to be the strongest since 2011. A combination of factors account for this: the bounce-back in US growth, strengthening growth in the Eurozone, and better performance in emerging markets (with recoveries in Russia and Argentina and stabilization in Brazil).
The further pickup in global real GDP growth from 3.0% this year to 3.2% in 2018 is predicated on the assumption the United States will enact fiscal stimulus. The good news is even if there is no boost from US fiscal policy, the underlying dynamics of the global economy will support a rate of expansion of around 3.0% next year.
Throughout the emerging world, growth in 2017 is set to be the best since 2013. Nevertheless, many of the large emerging markets still face challenges. India’s and South Africa’s economy lost momentum in the January–March quarter.
BOTTOM LINE:
The global economy seems poised - finally - to break out of the doldrums and experience a fairly broad-based acceleration in growth. Political and policy uncertainties aside, this happy state of affairs will probably continue into 2018.
Regional Perspectives: South African Forecast Highlights
IHS Markit expects South Africa’s GDP growth rate to average 0.6% in 2017 and 0.9% in 2018. The growth outlook hinges mostly on the export sector’s performance, since domestic demand conditions are expected to remain dismal during 2017–18.
Policy space is limited to support the economy and IHS Markit assumes an unchanged monetary policy stance during 2017, whereas fiscal consolidation is envisioned in the near term.
The economic challenges facing South Africa include its ability to sustain economic growth in volatile global markets, broaden participation, strengthen industrial development and trade performance, and accelerate the pace of job creation.
Major data releases incorporated in this update
Community Survey 2016
The Community Survey data was further incorporated into the ReX model by integrating the regional distributions of the various household-infrastructure variables (housing, sanitation, etc.) on a local municipal level. The same applies to the regional distribution of the language portions within the demographic model. IHS Markit is still waiting on feedback from StatsSA with regards to Labour and Income data that has still not been made available.
General Household Survey (GHS) 2016
The GHS is an annual release from StatsSA, specifically designed to measure various aspects of the living circumstance of South Africa households. Data from the GHS provides input for the majority of the Development Model as well as a number of indicators within the Demographic Model. The data was particularly used to update and model topics such as: Education, Literacy, Household Infrastructure, Urban Population and the headship rates.
Living Conditions Survey (LCS) 2014/15
The LCS is another household-based survey that collects detailed income and expenditure data, as well as information on education, housing and living circumstances from households across South Africa. The LCS data is used to monitor and profile the poverty levels in the country and also provides the necessary data to inform the development and maintenance of household and monitor inequality. StatsSA has however not released the detailed expenditure data which will hopefully be published later this year.
ReX Publisher: taking our ReX data a step further
ReX Publisher generates automated research documents based on the latest ReX data available. You can choose between a 3-page quick overview, or full content report complete with descriptive charts, data summaries and interpretations.
For more information, go to http://www.rexpublisher.co.za, or contact Johan.Boshoff@ihsmarkit.com
Note for our current users:
Since this ReX update included 2016 data for all modules, both ReX Publisher reports now reflect 2016 data.
As always, we hope you enjoy this update.
Best,
The IHS Markit ReX team
